Sea · Victoria · Australia
The Cutting
Best for kiting from July to March, with 50 to 65 % kite days. Water 13 to 19 °C.
A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 knots (gusts up to 45) between 10:00 and 19:00, in daylight. Percentages are the share of such days in each month, counted over 9 years.
- Prime 60 % and more
- Good 40 to 59 %
- Possible 20 to 39 %
- Off under 20 %
- No data hatched
- Ringed: this month
Prime also needs a good month in at least 7 of the 9 years, so one freak year cannot make a month Prime. A month with 60 %+ but fewer good years shows as Good.
Confidence highHourly model data, 2017 to 2025, checked against the season shape of a nearby weather station, a regional model or a documented season.
Month by month
- Kite days
- 57 % Goodabout 18 of 31 days
- Too light, kiteable, too strong
- Too light 43 %
- Kiteable 57 %
- Too strong 0 %
- Good years
- 7 of 9 years reached 50 % kite days
- 10 day trip
- 8 in 10 trips got at least 5 kite days, about 5.6 expected
- Best hours
- all day, 10:00 to 19:00when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots
- Daylight
- 13.1 h
- Water
- 15 °C, 5/4
- Air
- 16 °Cdaily maximum, 14 °C during kite hours
- Rain
- 12 of 31with 1 mm or more
- In one sentence
In October, The Cutting averaged 18 kite days out of 31 (57 %). Water 15 °C, 5/4. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
| Kite days% of days | 58 | 61 | 50 | 42 | 47 | 43 | 57 | 59 | 63 | 57 | 61 | 65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verdictshare plus good years | Good | Prime | Good | Good | Good | Good | Good | Good | Prime | Good | Prime | Prime |
| 10 day tripof 10 trips, 5+ kite days | 8 in 10 | 8 in 10 | 6 in 10 | 5 in 10 | 4 in 10 | 4 in 10 | 7 in 10 | 7 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 8 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 8 in 10 |
| Good yearsof 9, reached 50 % | 6 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 9 | 3 of 9 | 2 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 8 of 9 |
| Best hourshour of day, most often 12 to 35 kn | 14 to 19 | 13 to 19 | 14 to 19 | 11 to 17 | 10 to 16 | 10 to 16 | 10 to 16 | 10 to 17 | 10 to 17 | 10 to 19 | 13 to 19 | 13 to 19 |
| Daylighth | 14.5 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 14.2 | 14.8 |
| Water°C at the surface | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| Air°C, daily maximum | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| Rain days1 mm or more | 6 of 31 | 6 of 28 | 8 of 31 | 11 of 30 | 14 of 31 | 14 of 30 | 17 of 31 | 17 of 31 | 16 of 30 | 12 of 31 | 12 of 30 | 8 of 31 |
| Wetsuitfor that water and the air on kite days, + boots and gloves | 3/2 | 3/2 | 4/3 | 5/4 | 5/4 | 5/4 | 6/5+ | 5/4 | 5/4 | 5/4 | 5/4 | 5/4 |
- In January, The Cutting averaged 18 kite days out of 31 (58 %). Water 19 °C, 3/2. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in January got at least 5 kite days.
- In February, The Cutting averaged 17 kite days out of 28 (61 %). Water 19 °C, 3/2. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in February got at least 5 kite days.
- In March, The Cutting averaged 15 kite days out of 31 (50 %). Water 18 °C, 4/3. 6 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in March got at least 5 kite days.
- In April, The Cutting averaged 13 kite days out of 30 (42 %). Water 17 °C, 5/4. 5 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in April got at least 5 kite days.
- In May, The Cutting averaged 14 kite days out of 31 (47 %). Water 15 °C, 5/4. 4 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in May got at least 5 kite days.
- In June, The Cutting averaged 13 kite days out of 30 (43 %). Water 14 °C, 5/4. 4 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in June got at least 5 kite days.
- In July, The Cutting averaged 18 kite days out of 31 (57 %). Water 13 °C, 6/5 with boots and gloves. 7 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in July got at least 5 kite days.
- In August, The Cutting averaged 18 kite days out of 31 (59 %). Water 14 °C, 5/4. 7 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in August got at least 5 kite days.
- In September, The Cutting averaged 19 kite days out of 30 (63 %). Water 14 °C, 5/4. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in September got at least 5 kite days.
- In October, The Cutting averaged 18 kite days out of 31 (57 %). Water 15 °C, 5/4. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
- In November, The Cutting averaged 18 kite days out of 30 (61 %). Water 16 °C, 5/4. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in November got at least 5 kite days.
- In December, The Cutting averaged 20 kite days out of 31 (65 %). Water 17 °C, 5/4. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in December got at least 5 kite days.
Good year: at least half the days of that month were kite days. x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise. Best hours: the hours from 10:00 on when the wind most often reaches 12 to 35 knots. Rain day: 1 mm or more of rain.
Source: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly model wind, 2017 to 2025; water temperature 2023 to 2025. How we count kite days and trip odds
Trip odds at The Cutting
How often a trip of your length got at least half its days with kite wind, 2017 to 2025, capped at 9 in 10.
- January8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.8 expected
- February8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.9 expected
- March6 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 4.9 expected
- April5 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 4.3 expected
- May4 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 4.4 expected
- June4 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 4.4 expected
- July7 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.9 expected
- August7 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.9 expected
- September9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.3 expected
- October (now)8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.6 expected
- November9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.4 expected
- December8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.3 expected
x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.
Trip odds by start week
Pick your start week and trip length. Each cell: of all trips of that length that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, how many in 10 got at least half their days with kite wind.
Trip odds by start week, 10 day trips, 2017 to 2025
- 9
- 8
- 7
- 7
- 9
- 8
- 8
- 8
- 7
- 4
- 6
- 6
- 7
- 5
- 4
- 4
- 6
- 6
- 3
- 4
- 5
- 5
- 6
- 4
- 3
- 4
- 7
- 8
- 8
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- 8
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- 8
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 7
- 8
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- 8
- 8
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- 9
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 8
- 8
Colours as in the kite year: 6 in 10 and more like Prime · 4 to 5 in 10 like Good · 2 to 3 in 10 like Possible · under 2 in 10 like Off · No data hatched (fewer than 30 trips) · Ringed: this week · Raised: your start week
x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.
Source: hourly wind from the ECMWF IFS model via Open-Meteo, 2017 to 2025, kiteCOMPASS method v1. How we count
8 in 10
trips of 10 days starting in week 45 (e.g. 5 to 11 November) got at least 5 kite days in 2017 to 2025 (63 trips).
Zero wind trips: fewer than 1 in 20
about 6.4 kite days expected out of 10
Kite days per trip, 63 trips
Bars right of the line are good trips (5 kite days or more).
How the wind behaves
In December, the windiest month
- Too light 35 %
- Kiteable 65 %
- Too strong 0 %
Too light on 35 %, kiteable on 65 %, too strong on 0 % of days.
Best hours: 13:00 to 19:00, when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots.
Share of kite days by wind direction, 16 sectors
Wind mostly from SE (135°), fairly steady direction.
Kitesurfing at The Cutting: quick answers
When is the best time to kitesurf at The Cutting?
The best months are July to March: from 2017 to 2025, 50 to 65 % of days in those months were kite days.
Is The Cutting windy in October?
Yes, often. 57 % of days in October were kite days from 2017 to 2025, about 18 days in a typical October. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days, 2017 to 2025.
What is the water temperature at The Cutting?
The water ranges from 13 °C in July to 19 °C in January. In October it is about 15 °C (wetsuit: 5/4).
How many kite days does The Cutting get in a year?
About 201 days a year were kite days from 2017 to 2025, out of 365. A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn.
Live forecast
The numbers above are long term averages. The forecast shows the next days.
Live forecast from Windy
The forecast map for The Cutting comes from windy.com (Windyty SE, Prague, Czech Republic) and opens right here on this page. Once you load it, your browser contacts Windy, which receives your IP address and may set its own cookies. Nothing is loaded before you click.
Spot facts
- Region
- Victoria
- Country
- Australia
- Water body
- Sea, from Natural Earth map data
- Nearest airport
- Portland Airport (PTJ), 79 km straight line. Flights are not sold here; this is for planning only.
- Time zone
- UTC+11:00 in October
- Coordinates
- -38.3490, 142.3702
- Model
- ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly
Conditions, checked against kite guides
Water state, flat areas, waves and whether schools teach here, from kite sources, not from satellite images.
Not yet checked against kite guides. We research spot conditions one by one and show only what a kite source says.
Nearby kite spots in Victoria
Kite days in October, % of days
- Johanna Beach
Australia · 10 points more kite days than The Cutting in October
67 %Kite days by month at Johanna Beach: Jan 68 %, Feb 72 %, Mar 61 %, Apr 53 %, May 58 %, Jun 53 %, Jul 70 %, Aug 72 %, Sep 74 %, Oct 67 %, Nov 70 %, Dec 68 % - Point Danger
Australia · 10 points fewer kite days than The Cutting in October
47 %Kite days by month at Point Danger: Jan 41 %, Feb 45 %, Mar 38 %, Apr 33 %, May 45 %, Jun 44 %, Jul 51 %, Aug 53 %, Sep 54 %, Oct 47 %, Nov 41 %, Dec 46 % - Bells Beach
Australia · 6 points fewer kite days than The Cutting in October
51 %Kite days by month at Bells Beach: Jan 51 %, Feb 56 %, Mar 46 %, Apr 31 %, May 40 %, Jun 40 %, Jul 46 %, Aug 50 %, Sep 56 %, Oct 51 %, Nov 49 %, Dec 53 % - Point Henry
Australia · 15 points fewer kite days than The Cutting in October
42 %Kite days by month at Point Henry: Jan 40 %, Feb 41 %, Mar 34 %, Apr 25 %, May 31 %, Jun 32 %, Jul 36 %, Aug 42 %, Sep 50 %, Oct 42 %, Nov 35 %, Dec 42 % - 13th beach
Australia · 1 point fewer kite days than The Cutting in October
56 %Kite days by month at 13th beach: Jan 58 %, Feb 65 %, Mar 54 %, Apr 40 %, May 50 %, Jun 47 %, Jul 53 %, Aug 58 %, Sep 61 %, Oct 56 %, Nov 57 %, Dec 62 % - Ocean Grove
Australia · 3 points more kite days than The Cutting in October
60 %Kite days by month at Ocean Grove: Jan 67 %, Feb 71 %, Mar 57 %, Apr 42 %, May 54 %, Jun 49 %, Jul 59 %, Aug 64 %, Sep 64 %, Oct 60 %, Nov 63 %, Dec 67 % - Point Richards
Australia · same kite days as The Cutting in October
57 %Kite days by month at Point Richards: Jan 66 %, Feb 66 %, Mar 53 %, Apr 39 %, May 45 %, Jun 42 %, Jul 50 %, Aug 55 %, Sep 63 %, Oct 57 %, Nov 59 %, Dec 68 % - Rye Front Beach
Australia · 4 points more kite days than The Cutting in October
61 %Kite days by month at Rye Front Beach: Jan 72 %, Feb 74 %, Mar 60 %, Apr 45 %, May 55 %, Jun 55 %, Jul 60 %, Aug 66 %, Sep 66 %, Oct 61 %, Nov 65 %, Dec 71 %
Plan your trip
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kiteCOMPASS · method k3h-10to19-v1 · 2017 to 2025
Model wind: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025. Water temperature: 2023 to 2025. Kite day: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn. Confidence: high.
Cite this
In October, 57 % of days at The Cutting met the kiteCOMPASS kite day rule: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn (ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025). https://kitecompass.app/spot/the-cutting
Numbers on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: name kiteCOMPASS and link to this page.