Sea · Victoria · Australia
Flynns Reef
Best for kiting all year, with 50 to 76 % kite days. Water 13 to 19 °C.
A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 knots (gusts up to 45) between 10:00 and 19:00, in daylight. Percentages are the share of such days in each month, counted over 9 years.
- Prime 60 % and more
- Good 40 to 59 %
- Possible 20 to 39 %
- Off under 20 %
- No data hatched
- Ringed: this month
Prime also needs a good month in at least 7 of the 9 years, so one freak year cannot make a month Prime. A month with 60 %+ but fewer good years shows as Good.
Confidence highClose model cell, both models agree on the season, 9 full years.
Month by month
- Kite days
- 63 % Primeabout 19 of 31 days
- Too light, kiteable, too strong
- Too light 37 %
- Kiteable 63 %
- Too strong 0 %
- Good years
- 7 of 9 years reached 50 % kite days
- 10 day trip
- 9 in 10 trips got at least 5 kite days, about 6.4 expected
- Best hours
- all day, 10:00 to 19:00when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots
- Daylight
- 13.1 h
- Water
- 14 °C, 5/4
- Air
- 16 °Cdaily maximum, 14 °C during kite hours
- Rain
- 11 of 31with 1 mm or more
- In one sentence
In October, Flynns Reef averaged 19 kite days out of 31 (63 %). Water 14 °C, 5/4. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
| Kite days% of days | 72 | 76 | 62 | 50 | 58 | 55 | 67 | 70 | 69 | 63 | 69 | 72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verdictshare plus good years | Prime | Prime | Prime | Good | Good | Good | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime |
| 10 day tripof 10 trips, 5+ kite days | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 8 in 10 | 6 in 10 | 7 in 10 | 6 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 |
| Good yearsof 9, reached 50 % | 9 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Best hourshour of day, most often 12 to 35 kn | 15 to 19 | 15 to 19 | 16 to 19 | 10 to 17 | 10 to 16 | 10 to 16 | 10 to 16 | 10 to 17 | 10 to 17 | 10 to 19 | 10 to 19 | 12 to 19 |
| Daylighth | 14.5 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 14.2 | 14.8 |
| Water°C at the surface | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 17 |
| Air°C, daily maximum | 21 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 19 |
| Rain days1 mm or more | 5 of 31 | 6 of 28 | 7 of 31 | 9 of 30 | 12 of 31 | 13 of 30 | 15 of 31 | 14 of 31 | 14 of 30 | 11 of 31 | 10 of 30 | 8 of 31 |
| Wetsuitfor that water and the air on kite days, + boots and gloves | 3/2 | 3/2 | 3/2 | 4/3 | 5/4 | 5/4 | 5/4 | 6/5+ | 5/4 | 5/4 | 5/4 | 4/3 |
- In January, Flynns Reef averaged 22 kite days out of 31 (72 %). Water 19 °C, 3/2. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in January got at least 5 kite days.
- In February, Flynns Reef averaged 21 kite days out of 28 (76 %). Water 19 °C, 3/2. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in February got at least 5 kite days.
- In March, Flynns Reef averaged 19 kite days out of 31 (62 %). Water 19 °C, 3/2. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in March got at least 5 kite days.
- In April, Flynns Reef averaged 15 kite days out of 30 (50 %). Water 18 °C, 4/3. 6 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in April got at least 5 kite days.
- In May, Flynns Reef averaged 18 kite days out of 31 (58 %). Water 17 °C, 5/4. 7 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in May got at least 5 kite days.
- In June, Flynns Reef averaged 16 kite days out of 30 (55 %). Water 15 °C, 5/4. 6 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in June got at least 5 kite days.
- In July, Flynns Reef averaged 21 kite days out of 31 (67 %). Water 14 °C, 5/4. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in July got at least 5 kite days.
- In August, Flynns Reef averaged 22 kite days out of 31 (70 %). Water 13 °C, 6/5 with boots and gloves. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in August got at least 5 kite days.
- In September, Flynns Reef averaged 21 kite days out of 30 (69 %). Water 14 °C, 5/4. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in September got at least 5 kite days.
- In October, Flynns Reef averaged 19 kite days out of 31 (63 %). Water 14 °C, 5/4. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
- In November, Flynns Reef averaged 21 kite days out of 30 (69 %). Water 16 °C, 5/4. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in November got at least 5 kite days.
- In December, Flynns Reef averaged 22 kite days out of 31 (72 %). Water 17 °C, 4/3. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in December got at least 5 kite days.
Good year: at least half the days of that month were kite days. x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise. Best hours: the hours from 10:00 on when the wind most often reaches 12 to 35 knots. Rain day: 1 mm or more of rain.
Source: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly model wind, 2017 to 2025; water temperature 2023 to 2025. How we count kite days and trip odds
Trip odds at Flynns Reef
How often a trip of your length got at least half its days with kite wind, 2017 to 2025, capped at 9 in 10.
- January9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 7.3 expected
- February9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 7.5 expected
- March8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.9 expected
- April6 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.1 expected
- May7 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.8 expected
- June6 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.3 expected
- July9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 7.0 expected
- August9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.9 expected
- September9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.8 expected
- October (now)9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.4 expected
- November9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.9 expected
- December9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 7.1 expected
x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.
Trip odds by start week
Pick your start week and trip length. Each cell: of all trips of that length that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, how many in 10 got at least half their days with kite wind.
Trip odds by start week, 10 day trips, 2017 to 2025
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 7
- 8
- 7
- 8
- 7
- 4
- 5
- 8
- 8
- 7
- 7
- 8
- 7
- 7
- 6
- 5
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 7
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 9
Colours as in the kite year: 6 in 10 and more like Prime · 4 to 5 in 10 like Good · 2 to 3 in 10 like Possible · under 2 in 10 like Off · No data hatched (fewer than 30 trips) · Ringed: this week · Raised: your start week
x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.
Source: hourly wind from the ECMWF IFS model via Open-Meteo, 2017 to 2025, kiteCOMPASS method v1. How we count
9 in 10
trips of 10 days starting in week 45 (e.g. 5 to 11 November) got at least 5 kite days in 2017 to 2025 (63 trips).
Zero wind trips: fewer than 1 in 20
about 7.1 kite days expected out of 10
Kite days per trip, 63 trips
Bars right of the line are good trips (5 kite days or more).
How the wind behaves
In February, the windiest month
- Too light 24 %
- Kiteable 76 %
- Too strong 0 %
Too light on 24 %, kiteable on 76 %, too strong on 0 % of days.
Best hours: 15:00 to 19:00, when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots.
Share of kite days by wind direction, 16 sectors
Wind direction varies, most often SW (225°).
Kitesurfing at Flynns Reef: quick answers
When is the best time to kitesurf at Flynns Reef?
The best months are the whole year: from 2017 to 2025, 50 to 76 % of days were kite days in every month.
Is Flynns Reef windy in October?
Yes, very. 63 % of days in October were kite days from 2017 to 2025, about 19 days in a typical October. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days, 2017 to 2025.
What is the water temperature at Flynns Reef?
The water ranges from 13 °C in August to 19 °C in January. In October it is about 14 °C (wetsuit: 5/4).
How many kite days does Flynns Reef get in a year?
About 238 days a year were kite days from 2017 to 2025, out of 365. A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn.
Live forecast
The numbers above are long term averages. The forecast shows the next days.
Live forecast from Windy
The forecast map for Flynns Reef comes from windy.com (Windyty SE, Prague, Czech Republic) and opens right here on this page. Once you load it, your browser contacts Windy, which receives your IP address and may set its own cookies. Nothing is loaded before you click.
Spot facts
- Region
- Victoria
- Country
- Australia
- Water body
- Sea, from Natural Earth map data
- Nearest airport
- Melbourne Moorabbin Airport (MBW), 59 km straight line. Flights are not sold here; this is for planning only.
- Time zone
- UTC+11:00 in October
- Coordinates
- -38.5056, 145.1430
- Model
- ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly
Conditions, checked against kite guides
Water state, flat areas, waves and whether schools teach here, from kite sources, not from satellite images.
Not yet checked against kite guides. We research spot conditions one by one and show only what a kite source says.
Nearby kite spots in Victoria
Kite days in October, % of days
- Flinders
Australia · 19 points fewer kite days than Flynns Reef in October
44 %Kite days by month at Flinders: Jan 37 %, Feb 46 %, Mar 35 %, Apr 33 %, May 37 %, Jun 34 %, Jul 45 %, Aug 51 %, Sep 53 %, Oct 44 %, Nov 44 %, Dec 47 % - Point Leo
Australia · 34 points fewer kite days than Flynns Reef in October
29 %Kite days by month at Point Leo: Jan 19 %, Feb 24 %, Mar 20 %, Apr 16 %, May 18 %, Jun 19 %, Jul 28 %, Aug 33 %, Sep 34 %, Oct 29 %, Nov 28 %, Dec 28 % - Woolamai
Australia · 11 points fewer kite days than Flynns Reef in October
52 %Kite days by month at Woolamai: Jan 60 %, Feb 65 %, Mar 52 %, Apr 44 %, May 50 %, Jun 46 %, Jul 59 %, Aug 61 %, Sep 62 %, Oct 52 %, Nov 60 %, Dec 65 % - Woolamai Beach
Australia · 16 points fewer kite days than Flynns Reef in October
47 %Kite days by month at Woolamai Beach: Jan 49 %, Feb 56 %, Mar 46 %, Apr 38 %, May 48 %, Jun 44 %, Jul 58 %, Aug 60 %, Sep 59 %, Oct 47 %, Nov 50 %, Dec 56 % - Rye Front Beach
Australia · 2 points fewer kite days than Flynns Reef in October
61 %Kite days by month at Rye Front Beach: Jan 72 %, Feb 74 %, Mar 60 %, Apr 45 %, May 55 %, Jun 55 %, Jul 60 %, Aug 66 %, Sep 66 %, Oct 61 %, Nov 65 %, Dec 71 % - Frankston
Australia · 22 points fewer kite days than Flynns Reef in October
41 %Kite days by month at Frankston: Jan 35 %, Feb 39 %, Mar 31 %, Apr 30 %, May 37 %, Jun 36 %, Jul 43 %, Aug 44 %, Sep 49 %, Oct 41 %, Nov 42 %, Dec 43 % - Inverloch
Australia · 25 points fewer kite days than Flynns Reef in October
38 %Kite days by month at Inverloch: Jan 31 %, Feb 39 %, Mar 32 %, Apr 27 %, May 35 %, Jun 29 %, Jul 38 %, Aug 45 %, Sep 46 %, Oct 38 %, Nov 34 %, Dec 40 % - Aspendale
Australia · 12 points fewer kite days than Flynns Reef in October
51 %Kite days by month at Aspendale: Jan 63 %, Feb 67 %, Mar 50 %, Apr 39 %, May 44 %, Jun 39 %, Jul 44 %, Aug 50 %, Sep 57 %, Oct 51 %, Nov 57 %, Dec 63 %
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kiteCOMPASS · method k3h-10to19-v1 · 2017 to 2025
Model wind: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025. Water temperature: 2023 to 2025. Kite day: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn. Confidence: high.
Cite this
In October, 63 % of days at Flynns Reef met the kiteCOMPASS kite day rule: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn (ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025). https://kitecompass.app/spot/flynns-reef
Numbers on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: name kiteCOMPASS and link to this page.