Destination · Hourly model wind, 2017 to 2025

Confidence highClose model cell, both models agree on the season, 9 full years.

Kitesurfing in Holbox, Mexico

Name: Holbox
Address: MEX

Island in Mexico · 1 kite spots · airports CUN, CZM, TQO

Best for kiting all year except September, with 53 to 91 % kite days. Water 25 to 29 °C.

Season 24 Sep to 2 Sep, peak 22 Oct to 11 Nov and 3 Dec to 12 Aug.

A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn. Percentages are the share of such days in each month, counted over 2017 to 2025.

Numbers on this page are from Isla Holbox, the only spot of Holbox with model data.

Kite Year

Kite days per month, in % of days. Colour is the verdict, the number is the share. Tap a month for its details.

JJan68Prime
FFeb84Prime
MMar91Prime
AApr89Prime
MMay84Prime
JJun78Prime
JJul69Prime
AAug56Good
SSep37Possible
OOct53Goodnow · chosen
NNov59Good
DDec63Prime

Prime 60 % and more
Good 40 to 59 %
Possible 20 to 39 %
Off under 20 %
No data hatched
Ringed: this month
Raised: your chosen month

Prime also needs a good month in at least 7 of the 9 years, so one freak year cannot make a month Prime. A month with 60 %+ but fewer good years shows as Good.

October in Holbox, this month, averaged over 2017 to 2025.

KITE DAYS: 16 of 31; 53 % kite days, Good
WIND: 12 knots; afternoon average, 12:00 to 18:00
WATER: 29 °C, boardshorts; suit for 27 °C and warmer

7 in 10

trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days in 2017 to 2025 (9 Octobers).

about 5.5 kite days expected out of 10.

x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise. How we count trip odds

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Live forecast How we count a kite day

Month by month

Tap a month for trip odds, good years, best hours, water, air and rain.

MonthKite days% of days, verdict10 day tripof 10 trips, 5+ kite daysWater°C, what to wear

Kite days
53 % Goodabout 16 of 31 days
Too light, kiteable, too strong
Too light 47 %
Kiteable 53 %
Too strong 0 %
10 day trip
7 in 10 trips got at least 5 kite days, about 5.5 expected
Best hours
15:00 to 17:00when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots
Daylight
11.7 h
Water
29 °C, boardshorts
Air
29 °Cdaily maximum, 28 °C during kite hours
Rain
18 of 31with 1 mm or more
In one sentence
In October, Isla Holbox averaged 16 kite days out of 31 (53 %). Water 29 °C, boardshorts. 7 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.

Isla Holbox

Kite days% of days	68	84	91	89	84	78	69	56	37	53	59	63
Verdictshare plus good years	Prime	Prime	Prime	Prime	Prime	Prime	Prime	Good	Possible	Good	Good	Prime
10 day tripof 10 trips, 5+ kite days	9 in 10	9 in 10	9 in 10	9 in 10	9 in 10	9 in 10	8 in 10	6 in 10	4 in 10	7 in 10	7 in 10	8 in 10
Good yearsof 0, reached 50 %	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Best hourshour of day, most often 12 to 35 kn	14 to 17	14 to 18	14 to 18	13 to 18	13 to 18	13 to 19	14 to 18	15 to 18	15 to 18	15 to 17	15 to 17	14 to 17
Daylighth	11.0	11.4	12.0	12.6	13.2	13.4	13.3	12.9	12.3	11.7	11.1	10.9
Water°C at the surface	25	25	26	26	26	27	27	28	29	29	27	26
Air°C, daily maximum	25	26	27	28	29	29	29	29	29	29	27	26
Rain days1 mm or more	8 of 31	4 of 28	3 of 31	3 of 30	5 of 31	11 of 30	7 of 31	9 of 31	15 of 30	18 of 31	12 of 30	9 of 31
Wetsuitfor that water and the air on kite days, + boots and gloves	shorty	shorty	shorty	shorty	shorty	shorts	shorts	shorts	shorts	shorts	shorts	shorty

In January, Isla Holbox averaged 21 kite days out of 31 (68 %). Water 25 °C, shorty. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in January got at least 5 kite days.
In February, Isla Holbox averaged 23 kite days out of 28 (84 %). Water 25 °C, shorty. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in February got at least 5 kite days.
In March, Isla Holbox averaged 28 kite days out of 31 (91 %). Water 26 °C, shorty. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in March got at least 5 kite days.
In April, Isla Holbox averaged 27 kite days out of 30 (89 %). Water 26 °C, shorty. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in April got at least 5 kite days.
In May, Isla Holbox averaged 26 kite days out of 31 (84 %). Water 26 °C, shorty. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in May got at least 5 kite days.
In June, Isla Holbox averaged 23 kite days out of 30 (78 %). Water 27 °C, boardshorts. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in June got at least 5 kite days.
In July, Isla Holbox averaged 21 kite days out of 31 (69 %). Water 27 °C, boardshorts. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in July got at least 5 kite days.
In August, Isla Holbox averaged 17 kite days out of 31 (56 %). Water 28 °C, boardshorts. 6 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in August got at least 5 kite days.
In September, Isla Holbox averaged 11 kite days out of 30 (37 %). Water 29 °C, boardshorts. 4 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in September got at least 5 kite days.
In October, Isla Holbox averaged 16 kite days out of 31 (53 %). Water 29 °C, boardshorts. 7 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
In November, Isla Holbox averaged 18 kite days out of 30 (59 %). Water 27 °C, boardshorts. 7 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in November got at least 5 kite days.
In December, Isla Holbox averaged 19 kite days out of 31 (63 %). Water 26 °C, shorty. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in December got at least 5 kite days.

Good years are not shown here: this spot has no complete per year values, because the two models drift apart over the years. x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise. Best hours: the hours from 10:00 on when the wind most often reaches 12 to 35 knots. Rain day: 1 mm or more of rain.

Source: hourly wind from the ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly model, 2017 to 2025; water temperature 2023 to 2025; kiteCOMPASS method v1. How we count kite days and trip odds

October in Isla Holbox

this month, averaged over 2017 to 2025.

Kite days: 53 % Goodabout 16 of 31 days
Too light, kiteable, too strong: Too light 47 %
Kiteable 53 %
Too strong 0 %
10 day trip: 7 in 10 trips got at least 5 kite days, about 5.5 expected
Best hours: 15:00 to 17:00when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots
Daylight: 11.7 h
Water: 29 °C, boardshorts
Air: 29 °Cdaily maximum, 28 °C during kite hours
Rain: 18 of 31with 1 mm or more
In one sentence: In October, Isla Holbox averaged 16 kite days out of 31 (53 %). Water 29 °C, boardshorts. 7 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.

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Trip odds, expected kite days, water and wetsuit for your exact dates. Free, no sign up.

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Confidence

Confidence highhourly model data, close sea cell, checks agree on the season

Why. Close model cell, both models agree on the season, 9 full years.

What it means for you. The numbers on this page are a fair forecast of a typical year here. Medium would mean one check is uncertain, for example a cell 12 km away: expect a few points off. Low means global models miss part of the local wind, often at lakes, thermal or inland spots; where documented local sources describe the season, we show that curated season instead of model numbers.

Water and wetsuit

29 °C in October, boardshorts (27 °C and warmer).

boardshorts27 and up
shorty24 to 26
spring suit21 to 23
3/218 to 20
4/314 to 17
5/410 to 13
6/5under 10

The filled step is the suit for October; the band under each step is the water temperature it covers, in °C.

25 to 29 °C, shorty to boardshorts.

Where the model is blind

Here the model sees the wind at Isla Holbox, so the numbers on this page are model numbers. Where documented local sources describe the season of a lake or thermal spot, we show that curated season instead: a hatched band over the season months with its sources named and no percentage, because the model number would be wrong there.

Getting there

Cancún International Airport (CUN), 75 km straight line
Cozumel International Airport (CZM), 124 km straight line
Felipe Carrillo Puerto International Airport Tulum (TQO), 158 km straight line

Flight time from

FRA Frankfurt: about 11 h 15 min straight line, 8,593 km
MUC Munich: about 11 h 35 min straight line, 8,876 km
AMS Amsterdam: about 10 h 50 min straight line, 8,266 km
LHR London Heathrow: about 10 h 25 min straight line, 7,939 km
ZRH Zurich: about 11 h 20 min straight line, 8,683 km
CDG Paris Charles de Gaulle: about 10 h 45 min straight line, 8,208 km

Flight time: the straight line distance at 800 km/h plus 30 minutes. Real flights with stops take longer. Flights are not sold here.

Best time to kitesurf in Holbox

Best for kiting all year except September, with 53 to 91 % kite days. Water 25 to 29 °C.

Season 24 Sep to 2 Sep, peak 22 Oct to 11 Nov and 3 Dec to 12 Aug. Dates from 52 weekly values of the main spot, season from 40 % kite days, peak from 60 %, counted only in weeks with water or daytime air at 12 °C or more and at least 6 hours of daylight.

Prime months here: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, December. Each link shows where else to kite in that month.

Trip odds by start week

Pick your start week and trip length. Each cell: of all trips of that length that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, how many in 10 got at least half their days with kite wind.

Trip odds by start week, 10 day trips, 2017 to 2025

Colours as in the kite year: 6 in 10 and more like Prime · 4 to 5 in 10 like Good · 2 to 3 in 10 like Possible · under 2 in 10 like Off · No data hatched (fewer than 30 trips) · Ringed: this week · Raised: your start week

x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.

Source: hourly wind from the ECMWF IFS model via Open-Meteo, 2017 to 2025, kiteCOMPASS method v1. How we count

Start date

8 in 10

trips of 10 days starting in week 45 (e.g. 5 to 11 November) got at least 5 kite days in 2017 to 2025 (63 trips).

Zero wind trips: fewer than 1 in 20

about 6.1 kite days expected out of 10

Kite days per trip, 63 trips

Bars right of the line are good trips (5 kite days or more).

Is Holbox windy?

Across the year, 69 % of days at Isla Holbox are kite days. The windiest month is March with 91 %, the calmest is September with 37 %.

Wind on kite days in March comes most often from ENE (68°).

Share of kite days by wind direction, 16 sectors

Afternoon wind12 knots(12 to 15 kn, average 12:00 to 18:00 in October)

under 8 kn
8 to 11 kn
12 to 15 kn
16 to 19 kn
20 to 24 kn
25 to 29 kn
30 kn and more

Main kite wind by month: Jan E, Feb ENE, Mar ENE, Apr E, May ENE, Jun ESE, Jul ENE, Aug ENE, Sep ENE, Oct ENE, Nov NE, Dec ENE.

Live forecast

The numbers above are long term averages. The forecast shows the next days.

Live forecast from Windy

The forecast map for Holbox comes from windy.com (Windyty SE, Prague, Czech Republic) and opens right here on this page. Once you load it, your browser contacts Windy, which receives your IP address and may set its own cookies. Nothing is loaded before you click.

Water temperature in Holbox by month

The sea is warmest in September at 29 °C and coolest in January at 25 °C. Wetsuit: shorty in January, boardshorts in September.

Water temperature from the Open-Meteo marine archive, 2023 to 2025, monthly mean of the main spot.

Kite spots in Holbox

Isla Holbox
Sea · main spot
Level Good for learning, from kite guides we checked
1. J
2. F
3. M
4. A
5. M
6. J
7. J
8. A
9. S
10. O
11. N
12. D
Kite days by month at Isla Holbox: Jan 68 %, Feb 84 %, Mar 91 %, Apr 89 %, May 84 %, Jun 78 %, Jul 69 %, Aug 56 %, Sep 37 %, Oct 53 %, Nov 59 %, Dec 63 %

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kiteCOMPASS · method k3h-10to19-v1 · 2017 to 2025

Model wind: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025. Water temperature: 2023 to 2025. Kite day: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn. Confidence: high.

Cite this

In October, 53 % of days at Isla Holbox met the kiteCOMPASS kite day rule: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn (ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025). https://kitecompass.app/kitesurfing/holbox

Download CSV (12 months)

Numbers on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: name kiteCOMPASS and link to this page.