Destination · Hourly model wind, 2017 to 2025

Confidence highClose model cell, both models agree on the season, 9 full years.

Kitesurfing in Lancelin, Australia

Name: Lancelin
Address: AUS

Beach in Australia · 4 kite spots · airports PER, GET

Best for kiting all year except May and June, with 56 to 92 % kite days. Water 19 to 23 °C.

Season all year, peak 16 Apr to 29 Apr and 16 Jul to 5 Aug and 3 Sep to 9 Sep and 17 Sep to 8 Apr.

A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn. Percentages are the share of such days in each month, counted over 2017 to 2025.

Numbers on this page are from Lancelin Bay, the main spot of Lancelin. The other 3 spots have 77 % kite days in October.

Kite Year

Kite days per month, in % of days. Colour is the verdict, the number is the share. Tap a month for its details.

JJan92Prime
FFeb82Prime
MMar71Prime
AApr61Prime
MMay48Good
JJun43Good
JJul58Good
AAug56Good
SSep62Prime
OOct77Primenow · chosen
NNov86Prime
DDec88Prime

Prime 60 % and more
Good 40 to 59 %
Possible 20 to 39 %
Off under 20 %
No data hatched
Ringed: this month
Raised: your chosen month

Prime also needs a good month in at least 7 of the 9 years, so one freak year cannot make a month Prime. A month with 60 %+ but fewer good years shows as Good.

October in Lancelin, this month, averaged over 2017 to 2025.

KITE DAYS: 24 of 31; 77 % kite days, Prime, good in 9 of 9 years
WIND: 15 knots; afternoon average, 12:00 to 18:00
WATER: 20 °C, 4/3; suit for 14 to 17 °C. The air is cool for this water, so we add one step.

9 in 10

trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days in 2017 to 2025 (9 Octobers, capped at 9 in 10).

about 7.9 kite days expected out of 10.

x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise. How we count trip odds

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Live forecast How we count a kite day

Month by month

Tap a month for trip odds, good years, best hours, water, air and rain.

MonthKite days% of days, verdict10 day tripof 10 trips, 5+ kite daysWater°C, what to wear

Kite days
77 % Primeabout 24 of 31 days
Too light, kiteable, too strong
Too light 22 %
Kiteable 77 %
Too strong 1 %
Good years
9 of 9 years reached 50 % kite days
10 day trip
9 in 10 trips got at least 5 kite days, about 7.9 expected (capped at 9 in 10)
Best hours
13:00 to 17:00when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots
Daylight
12.8 h
Water
20 °C, 4/3
Air
19 °Cdaily maximum, 18 °C during kite hours
Rain
7 of 31with 1 mm or more
In one sentence
In October, Lancelin Bay averaged 24 kite days out of 31 (77 %). Water 20 °C, 4/3. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.

Lancelin Bay

Kite days% of days	92	82	71	61	48	43	58	56	62	77	86	88
Verdictshare plus good years	Prime	Prime	Prime	Prime	Good	Good	Good	Good	Prime	Prime	Prime	Prime
10 day tripof 10 trips, 5+ kite days	9 in 10	9 in 10	9 in 10	8 in 10	5 in 10	5 in 10	8 in 10	8 in 10	9 in 10	9 in 10	9 in 10	9 in 10
Good yearsof 9, reached 50 %	9 of 9	9 of 9	9 of 9	9 of 9	4 of 9	2 of 9	7 of 9	8 of 9	9 of 9	9 of 9	9 of 9	9 of 9
Best hourshour of day, most often 12 to 35 kn	12 to 18	13 to 18	13 to 18	15 to 17	10 to 17	10 to 16	10 to 17	10 to 17	13 to 17	13 to 17	13 to 18	12 to 18
Daylighth	13.9	13.2	12.3	11.4	10.6	10.2	10.3	11.0	11.9	12.8	13.7	14.1
Water°C at the surface	23	23	23	23	22	21	19	19	19	20	21	22
Air°C, daily maximum	24	25	25	23	21	19	18	18	18	19	21	24
Rain days1 mm or more	2 of 31	2 of 28	5 of 31	4 of 30	9 of 31	14 of 30	16 of 31	13 of 31	8 of 30	7 of 31	4 of 30	2 of 31
Wetsuitfor that water and the air on kite days, + boots and gloves	spring	spring	spring	spring	3/2	3/2	4/3	4/3	4/3	4/3	spring	spring

In January, Lancelin Bay averaged 29 kite days out of 31 (92 %). Water 23 °C, spring suit. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in January got at least 5 kite days.
In February, Lancelin Bay averaged 23 kite days out of 28 (82 %). Water 23 °C, spring suit. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in February got at least 5 kite days.
In March, Lancelin Bay averaged 22 kite days out of 31 (71 %). Water 23 °C, spring suit. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in March got at least 5 kite days.
In April, Lancelin Bay averaged 18 kite days out of 30 (61 %). Water 23 °C, spring suit. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in April got at least 5 kite days.
In May, Lancelin Bay averaged 15 kite days out of 31 (48 %). Water 22 °C, 3/2. 5 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in May got at least 5 kite days.
In June, Lancelin Bay averaged 13 kite days out of 30 (43 %). Water 21 °C, 3/2. 5 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in June got at least 5 kite days.
In July, Lancelin Bay averaged 18 kite days out of 31 (58 %). Water 19 °C, 4/3. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in July got at least 5 kite days.
In August, Lancelin Bay averaged 17 kite days out of 31 (56 %). Water 19 °C, 4/3. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in August got at least 5 kite days.
In September, Lancelin Bay averaged 19 kite days out of 30 (62 %). Water 19 °C, 4/3. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in September got at least 5 kite days.
In October, Lancelin Bay averaged 24 kite days out of 31 (77 %). Water 20 °C, 4/3. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
In November, Lancelin Bay averaged 26 kite days out of 30 (86 %). Water 21 °C, spring suit. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in November got at least 5 kite days.
In December, Lancelin Bay averaged 27 kite days out of 31 (88 %). Water 22 °C, spring suit. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in December got at least 5 kite days.

Good year: at least half the days of that month were kite days. x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise. Best hours: the hours from 10:00 on when the wind most often reaches 12 to 35 knots. Rain day: 1 mm or more of rain.

Source: hourly wind from the ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly model, 2017 to 2025; water temperature 2023 to 2025; kiteCOMPASS method v1. How we count kite days and trip odds

October in Lancelin Bay

this month, averaged over 2017 to 2025.

Kite days: 77 % Primeabout 24 of 31 days
Too light, kiteable, too strong: Too light 22 %
Kiteable 77 %
Too strong 1 %
Good years: 9 of 9 years reached 50 % kite days
10 day trip: 9 in 10 trips got at least 5 kite days, about 7.9 expected (capped at 9 in 10)
Best hours: 13:00 to 17:00when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots
Daylight: 12.8 h
Water: 20 °C, 4/3
Air: 19 °Cdaily maximum, 18 °C during kite hours
Rain: 7 of 31with 1 mm or more
In one sentence: In October, Lancelin Bay averaged 24 kite days out of 31 (77 %). Water 20 °C, 4/3. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.

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Confidence

Confidence highhourly model data, close sea cell, checks agree on the season

Why. Close model cell, both models agree on the season, 9 full years. Shares its model grid cell with 2 nearby spots, so the numbers describe the area, not one beach.

What it means for you. The numbers on this page are a fair forecast of a typical year here. Medium would mean one check is uncertain, for example a cell 12 km away: expect a few points off. Low means global models miss part of the local wind, often at lakes, thermal or inland spots; where documented local sources describe the season, we show that curated season instead of model numbers.

Water and wetsuit

20 °C in October, 4/3 (14 to 17 °C).

The air is cool for this water, so we add one step.

boardshorts27 and up
shorty24 to 26
spring suit21 to 23
3/218 to 20
4/314 to 17
5/410 to 13
6/5under 10

The filled step is the suit for October; the band under each step is the water temperature it covers, in °C.

19 to 23 °C, 4/3 to spring suit.

Where the model is blind

Here the model sees the wind at Lancelin Bay, so the numbers on this page are model numbers. Where documented local sources describe the season of a lake or thermal spot, we show that curated season instead: a hatched band over the season months with its sources named and no percentage, because the model number would be wrong there.

Getting there

Perth International Airport (PER), 119 km straight line
Geraldton Airport (GET), 255 km straight line

Flight time from

FRA Frankfurt: about 17 h 40 min straight line, 13,746 km
MUC Munich: about 17 h 20 min straight line, 13,480 km
AMS Amsterdam: about 18 h 05 min straight line, 14,043 km
LHR London Heathrow: about 18 h 30 min straight line, 14,394 km
ZRH Zurich: about 17 h 35 min straight line, 13,695 km
CDG Paris Charles de Gaulle: about 18 h 10 min straight line, 14,161 km

Flight time: the straight line distance at 800 km/h plus 30 minutes. Real flights with stops take longer. Flights are not sold here.

Best time to kitesurf in Lancelin

Best for kiting all year except May and June, with 56 to 92 % kite days. Water 19 to 23 °C.

Season all year, peak 16 Apr to 29 Apr and 16 Jul to 5 Aug and 3 Sep to 9 Sep and 17 Sep to 8 Apr. Dates from 52 weekly values of the main spot, season from 40 % kite days, peak from 60 %, counted only in weeks with water or daytime air at 12 °C or more and at least 6 hours of daylight.

Prime months here: January, February, March, April, September, October, November, December. Each link shows where else to kite in that month.

Trip odds by start week

Pick your start week and trip length. Each cell: of all trips of that length that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, how many in 10 got at least half their days with kite wind.

Trip odds by start week, 10 day trips, 2017 to 2025

Colours as in the kite year: 6 in 10 and more like Prime · 4 to 5 in 10 like Good · 2 to 3 in 10 like Possible · under 2 in 10 like Off · No data hatched (fewer than 30 trips) · Ringed: this week · Raised: your start week

x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.

Source: hourly wind from the ECMWF IFS model via Open-Meteo, 2017 to 2025, kiteCOMPASS method v1. How we count

Start date

9 in 10

trips of 10 days starting in week 45 (e.g. 5 to 11 November) got at least 5 kite days in 2017 to 2025 (63 trips).

Zero wind trips: fewer than 1 in 20

about 8.2 kite days expected out of 10

Kite days per trip, 63 trips

Bars right of the line are good trips (5 kite days or more).

Is Lancelin windy?

Across the year, 69 % of days at Lancelin Bay are kite days. The windiest month is January with 92 %, the calmest is June with 43 %.

Wind on kite days in January comes most often from S (180°).

Share of kite days by wind direction, 16 sectors

Afternoon wind15 knots(12 to 15 kn, average 12:00 to 18:00 in October)

under 8 kn
8 to 11 kn
12 to 15 kn
16 to 19 kn
20 to 24 kn
25 to 29 kn
30 kn and more

Main kite wind by month: Jan S, Feb S, Mar S, Apr S, May S, Jun SW, Jul WSW, Aug W, Sep S, Oct S, Nov S, Dec S.

Live forecast

The numbers above are long term averages. The forecast shows the next days.

Live forecast from Windy

The forecast map for Lancelin comes from windy.com (Windyty SE, Prague, Czech Republic) and opens right here on this page. Once you load it, your browser contacts Windy, which receives your IP address and may set its own cookies. Nothing is loaded before you click.

Water temperature in Lancelin by month

The sea is warmest in January at 23 °C and coolest in July at 19 °C. Wetsuit: 4/3 in July, spring suit in January.

Water temperature from the Open-Meteo marine archive, 2023 to 2025, monthly mean of the main spot.

Kite spots in Lancelin

Lancelin Bay
Sea · main spot
Level Learning possible in parts, from kite guides we checked
1. J
2. F
3. M
4. A
5. M
6. J
7. J
8. A
9. S
10. O
11. N
12. D
Kite days by month at Lancelin Bay: Jan 92 %, Feb 82 %, Mar 71 %, Apr 61 %, May 48 %, Jun 43 %, Jul 58 %, Aug 56 %, Sep 62 %, Oct 77 %, Nov 86 %, Dec 88 %
Lancelin Island
Sea · 1 km
Same model cell as Lancelin Bay: near identical numbers.
1. J
2. F
3. M
4. A
5. M
6. J
7. J
8. A
9. S
10. O
11. N
12. D
Kite days by month at Lancelin Island: Jan 92 %, Feb 82 %, Mar 71 %, Apr 61 %, May 48 %, Jun 43 %, Jul 58 %, Aug 56 %, Sep 62 %, Oct 77 %, Nov 86 %, Dec 88 %
Lancelin Reef
Sea · 1 km
Same model cell as Lancelin Bay: near identical numbers.
1. J
2. F
3. M
4. A
5. M
6. J
7. J
8. A
9. S
10. O
11. N
12. D
Kite days by month at Lancelin Reef: Jan 92 %, Feb 82 %, Mar 71 %, Apr 61 %, May 48 %, Jun 43 %, Jul 58 %, Aug 56 %, Sep 62 %, Oct 77 %, Nov 86 %, Dec 88 %
Ledge Point
Sea · 10 km
Level Learning possible in parts, from kite guides we checked
1. J
2. F
3. M
4. A
5. M
6. J
7. J
8. A
9. S
10. O
11. N
12. D
Kite days by month at Ledge Point: Jan 92 %, Feb 83 %, Mar 68 %, Apr 60 %, May 47 %, Jun 43 %, Jul 57 %, Aug 55 %, Sep 59 %, Oct 77 %, Nov 86 %, Dec 88 %

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kiteCOMPASS · method k3h-10to19-v1 · 2017 to 2025

Model wind: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025. Water temperature: 2023 to 2025. Kite day: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn. Shares its model grid cell with 2 nearby spots, so the numbers describe the area, not one beach. Confidence: high.

Cite this

In October, 77 % of days at Lancelin Bay met the kiteCOMPASS kite day rule: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn (ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025). https://kitecompass.app/kitesurfing/lancelin

Download CSV (12 months)

Numbers on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: name kiteCOMPASS and link to this page.