Sea · California · United States
Leo Carillo (State Beach)
Kite days stay under 30 % in every month.
A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 knots (gusts up to 45) between 10:00 and 19:00, in daylight. Percentages are the share of such days in each month, counted over 9 years.
- Prime 60 % and more
- Good 40 to 59 %
- Possible 20 to 39 %
- Off under 20 %
- No data hatched
- Ringed: this month
Prime also needs a good month in at least 7 of the 9 years, so one freak year cannot make a month Prime. A month with 60 %+ but fewer good years shows as Good.
Confidence highHourly model data, 2017 to 2025, checked against the season shape of a nearby weather station, a regional model or a documented season.
Month by month
- Kite days
- 5 % Offabout 2 of 31 days
- Too light, kiteable, too strong
- Too light 95 %
- Kiteable 5 %
- Too strong 0 %
- Good years
- 0 of 9 years reached 50 % kite days
- 10 day trip
- under 1 in 10 trips got at least 5 kite days, about 0.6 expected
- Daylight
- 11.4 h
- Water
- 19 °C, 3/2
- Air
- 21 °Cdaily maximum, 20 °C during kite hours
- Rain
- 1 of 31with 1 mm or more
- In one sentence
In October, Leo Carillo (State Beach) averaged 2 kite days out of 31 (5 %). Water 19 °C, 3/2. under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
| Kite days% of days | 9 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verdictshare plus good years | Off | Off | Possible | Off | Off | Off | Off | Off | Off | Off | Off | Off |
| 10 day tripof 10 trips, 5+ kite days | under 1 in 10 | under 1 in 10 | 1 in 10 | 1 in 10 | under 1 in 10 | under 1 in 10 | under 1 in 10 | under 1 in 10 | under 1 in 10 | under 1 in 10 | under 1 in 10 | under 1 in 10 |
| Good yearsof 9, reached 50 % | 0 of 9 | 0 of 9 | 0 of 9 | 0 of 9 | 0 of 9 | 0 of 9 | 0 of 9 | 0 of 9 | 0 of 9 | 0 of 9 | 0 of 9 | 0 of 9 |
| Best hourshour of day, most often 12 to 35 kn | · | 13 to 17 | 14 to 18 | 16 to 18 | 14 to 18 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Daylighth | 10.2 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 13.9 | 14.4 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 9.9 |
| Water°C at the surface | 15 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 16 |
| Air°C, daily maximum | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 17 |
| Rain days1 mm or more | 6 of 31 | 5 of 28 | 7 of 31 | 2 of 30 | 1 of 31 | 0 of 30 | 0 of 31 | 0 of 31 | 1 of 30 | 1 of 31 | 3 of 30 | 5 of 31 |
| Wetsuitfor that water and the air on kite days, + boots and gloves | 5/4 | 5/4 | 4/3 | 4/3 | 4/3 | 3/2 | 3/2 | spring | spring | 3/2 | 5/4 | 5/4 |
- In January, Leo Carillo (State Beach) averaged 3 kite days out of 31 (9 %). Water 15 °C, 5/4. under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in January got at least 5 kite days.
- In February, Leo Carillo (State Beach) averaged 4 kite days out of 28 (15 %). Water 14 °C, 5/4. under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in February got at least 5 kite days.
- In March, Leo Carillo (State Beach) averaged 7 kite days out of 31 (21 %). Water 14 °C, 4/3. 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in March got at least 5 kite days.
- In April, Leo Carillo (State Beach) averaged 5 kite days out of 30 (17 %). Water 15 °C, 4/3. 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in April got at least 5 kite days.
- In May, Leo Carillo (State Beach) averaged 3 kite days out of 31 (10 %). Water 16 °C, 4/3. under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in May got at least 5 kite days.
- In June, Leo Carillo (State Beach) averaged 1 kite days out of 30 (4 %). Water 18 °C, 3/2. under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in June got at least 5 kite days.
- In July, Leo Carillo (State Beach) averaged 1 kite days out of 31 (1 %). Water 20 °C, 3/2. under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in July got at least 5 kite days.
- In August, Leo Carillo (State Beach) averaged 1 kite days out of 31 (1 %). Water 21 °C, spring suit. under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in August got at least 5 kite days.
- In September, Leo Carillo (State Beach) averaged 1 kite days out of 30 (2 %). Water 21 °C, spring suit. under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in September got at least 5 kite days.
- In October, Leo Carillo (State Beach) averaged 2 kite days out of 31 (5 %). Water 19 °C, 3/2. under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
- In November, Leo Carillo (State Beach) averaged 2 kite days out of 30 (8 %). Water 17 °C, 5/4. under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in November got at least 5 kite days.
- In December, Leo Carillo (State Beach) averaged 2 kite days out of 31 (8 %). Water 16 °C, 5/4. under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in December got at least 5 kite days.
Good year: at least half the days of that month were kite days. x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise. Best hours: the hours from 10:00 on when the wind most often reaches 12 to 35 knots. Rain day: 1 mm or more of rain.
Source: ERA5 reanalysis 31 km via Open-Meteo, hourly model wind, 2017 to 2025; water temperature 2023 to 2025. How we count kite days and trip odds
Trip odds at Leo Carillo (State Beach)
How often a trip of your length got at least half its days with kite wind, 2017 to 2025, capped at 9 in 10.
- Januaryunder 1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 0.9 expected
- Februaryunder 1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 1.6 expected
- March1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 2.0 expected
- April1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 1.6 expected
- Mayunder 1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 1.0 expected
- Juneunder 1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 0.3 expected
- Julyunder 1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 0.2 expected
- Augustunder 1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 0.1 expected
- Septemberunder 1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 0.2 expected
- October (now)under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 0.6 expected
- Novemberunder 1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 0.8 expected
- Decemberunder 1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 0.8 expected
x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.
Trip odds by start week
Pick your start week and trip length. Each cell: of all trips of that length that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, how many in 10 got at least half their days with kite wind.
Trip odds by start week, 10 day trips, 2017 to 2025
- 0
- 0
- 1
- 0
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 1
- 2
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 1
- 0
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
- 0
Colours as in the kite year: 6 in 10 and more like Prime · 4 to 5 in 10 like Good · 2 to 3 in 10 like Possible · under 2 in 10 like Off · No data hatched (fewer than 30 trips) · Ringed: this week · Raised: your start week
x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.
Source: hourly wind from the ECMWF IFS model via Open-Meteo, 2017 to 2025, kiteCOMPASS method v1. How we count
under 1 in 10
trips of 10 days starting in week 45 (e.g. 5 to 11 November) got at least 5 kite days in 2017 to 2025 (63 trips).
Zero wind trips: 7 in 10
about 0.4 kite days expected out of 10
Kite days per trip, 63 trips
Bars right of the line are good trips (5 kite days or more).
How the wind behaves
In March, the windiest month
- Too light 79 %
- Kiteable 21 %
- Too strong 0 %
Too light on 79 %, kiteable on 21 %, too strong on 0 % of days.
Best hours: 14:00 to 18:00, when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots.
Share of kite days by wind direction, 16 sectors
Wind steadily from W (270°).
Kitesurfing at Leo Carillo (State Beach): quick answers
When is the best time to kitesurf at Leo Carillo (State Beach)?
No month reaches 50 % kite days. The windiest month is March, when 21 % of days were kite days from 2017 to 2025.
Is Leo Carillo (State Beach) windy in October?
Rarely. 5 % of days in October were kite days from 2017 to 2025, about 2 days in a typical October. Fewer than 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days, 2017 to 2025.
What is the water temperature at Leo Carillo (State Beach)?
The water ranges from 14 °C in February to 21 °C in August. In October it is about 19 °C (wetsuit: 3/2).
How many kite days does Leo Carillo (State Beach) get in a year?
About 31 days a year were kite days from 2017 to 2025, out of 365. A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn.
Live forecast
The numbers above are long term averages. The forecast shows the next days.
Live forecast from Windy
The forecast map for Leo Carillo (State Beach) comes from windy.com (Windyty SE, Prague, Czech Republic) and opens right here on this page. Once you load it, your browser contacts Windy, which receives your IP address and may set its own cookies. Nothing is loaded before you click.
Spot facts
- Region
- California
- Country
- United States
- Water body
- Sea, from Natural Earth map data
- Nearest airport
- Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), 51 km straight line. Flights are not sold here; this is for planning only.
- Time zone
- UTC-07:00 in October
- Coordinates
- 34.0451, -118.9430
- Model
- ERA5 reanalysis 31 km via Open-Meteo, hourly
Conditions, checked against kite guides
Water state, flat areas, waves and whether schools teach here, from kite sources, not from satellite images.
Not yet checked against kite guides. We research spot conditions one by one and show only what a kite source says.
Nearby kite spots in California
Kite days in October, % of days
- Zuma Beach
United States · 3 points fewer kite days than Leo Carillo (State Beach) in October
2 %Kite days by month at Zuma Beach: Jan 6 %, Feb 10 %, Mar 10 %, Apr 9 %, May 5 %, Jun 1 %, Jul 0 %, Aug 0 %, Sep 0 %, Oct 2 %, Nov 5 %, Dec 4 % - Port Hueneme Beach
United States · 6 points more kite days than Leo Carillo (State Beach) in October
11 %Kite days by month at Port Hueneme Beach: Jan 22 %, Feb 22 %, Mar 26 %, Apr 16 %, May 11 %, Jun 6 %, Jul 1 %, Aug 1 %, Sep 3 %, Oct 11 %, Nov 18 %, Dec 21 % - Topanga Canyon Beach
United States · 1 point fewer kite days than Leo Carillo (State Beach) in October
4 %Kite days by month at Topanga Canyon Beach: Jan 8 %, Feb 13 %, Mar 15 %, Apr 17 %, May 14 %, Jun 7 %, Jul 5 %, Aug 5 %, Sep 6 %, Oct 4 %, Nov 4 %, Dec 3 % - C-Street
United States · 5 points more kite days than Leo Carillo (State Beach) in October
10 %Kite days by month at C-Street: Jan 15 %, Feb 27 %, Mar 31 %, Apr 23 %, May 20 %, Jun 12 %, Jul 11 %, Aug 6 %, Sep 13 %, Oct 10 %, Nov 12 %, Dec 15 % - Redondo
United States · 1 point fewer kite days than Leo Carillo (State Beach) in October
4 %Kite days by month at Redondo: Jan 12 %, Feb 16 %, Mar 20 %, Apr 15 %, May 10 %, Jun 5 %, Jul 7 %, Aug 8 %, Sep 8 %, Oct 4 %, Nov 5 %, Dec 8 % - Cabrillo Beach
United States · 7 points more kite days than Leo Carillo (State Beach) in October
12 %Kite days by month at Cabrillo Beach: Jan 12 %, Feb 22 %, Mar 33 %, Apr 36 %, May 28 %, Jun 22 %, Jul 25 %, Aug 29 %, Sep 30 %, Oct 12 %, Nov 6 %, Dec 10 % - Ledbetter
United States · 10 points more kite days than Leo Carillo (State Beach) in October
15 %Kite days by month at Ledbetter: Jan 22 %, Feb 30 %, Mar 43 %, Apr 54 %, May 50 %, Jun 40 %, Jul 37 %, Aug 32 %, Sep 18 %, Oct 15 %, Nov 14 %, Dec 21 % - Belmont Shores
United States · 2 points more kite days than Leo Carillo (State Beach) in October
7 %Kite days by month at Belmont Shores: Jan 12 %, Feb 20 %, Mar 23 %, Apr 29 %, May 32 %, Jun 28 %, Jul 33 %, Aug 24 %, Sep 24 %, Oct 7 %, Nov 6 %, Dec 8 %
Plan your trip
Booking reminder
Remind me when to book Leo Carillo (State Beach)
One mail, about 8 weeks before your month starts, with the kite day odds for that month and the link to this page. No newsletter.
We send one confirmation mail first; the reminder is set only after you click its link, and unconfirmed addresses are deleted after 7 days. Every mail has an unsubscribe link and a delete link. Privacy
kiteCOMPASS Pro
Plan the whole trip, not just the month
Save trips, get Plan B spots for days without wind and compare three places side by side. 29 EUR per year.
kiteCOMPASS · method k3h-10to19-v1 · 2017 to 2025
Model wind: ERA5 reanalysis 31 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025. Water temperature: 2023 to 2025. Kite day: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn. Confidence: high.
Cite this
In October, 5 % of days at Leo Carillo (State Beach) met the kiteCOMPASS kite day rule: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn (ERA5 reanalysis 31 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025). https://kitecompass.app/spot/leo-carillo-state-beach
Numbers on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: name kiteCOMPASS and link to this page.