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12 kn+. A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 knots between 10:00 and 19:00. How we count.

Sea · Pwani Region · Tanzania

Mafia Island

Best for kiting in January and from May to July, with 52 to 66 % kite days. Water 26 to 30 °C.

A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 knots (gusts up to 45) between 10:00 and 19:00, in daylight. Percentages are the share of such days in each month, counted over 9 years.

  1. J52
  2. F35
  3. M16
  4. A16
  5. M55
  6. J66
  7. J66
  8. A31
  9. S16
  10. O14
  11. N6
  12. D20
Kite days by month at Mafia Island: Jan 52 %, Feb 35 %, Mar 16 %, Apr 16 %, May 55 %, Jun 66 %, Jul 66 %, Aug 31 %, Sep 16 %, Oct 14 %, Nov 6 %, Dec 20 %
  • Prime 60 % and more
  • Good 40 to 59 %
  • Possible 20 to 39 %
  • Off under 20 %
  • No data hatched
  • Ringed: this month

Prime also needs a good month in at least 7 of the 9 years, so one freak year cannot make a month Prime. A month with 60 %+ but fewer good years shows as Good.

Confidence highClose model cell, both models agree on the season, 9 full years.

See the best monthsLive forecastShow on map

Month by month

MonthKite days% of days, verdict10 day tripof 10 trips, 5+ kite daysWater°C, what to wear
  • Kite days
    14 % Offabout 4 of 31 days
    Too light, kiteable, too strong
    • Too light 86 %
    • Kiteable 14 %
    • Too strong 0 %
    Good years
    2017: 13 % kite days2018: 16 % kite days2019: 26 % kite days2020: 7 % kite days2021: 13 % kite days2022: 10 % kite days2023: 10 % kite days2024: 10 % kite days2025: 23 % kite days0 of 9 years reached 50 % kite days
    10 day trip
    under 1 in 10 trips got at least 5 kite days, about 1.2 expected
    Best hours
    15:00 to 17:00when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots
    Daylight
    12.3 h
    Water
    28 °C, boardshorts
    Air
    28 °Cdaily maximum, 27 °C during kite hours
    Rain
    9 of 31with 1 mm or more
    In one sentence

    In October, Mafia Island averaged 4 kite days out of 31 (14 %). Water 28 °C, boardshorts. under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.

Good year: at least half the days of that month were kite days. x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise. Best hours: the hours from 10:00 on when the wind most often reaches 12 to 35 knots. Rain day: 1 mm or more of rain.

Source: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly model wind, 2017 to 2025; water temperature 2023 to 2025. How we count kite days and trip odds

Trip odds at Mafia Island

How often a trip of your length got at least half its days with kite wind, 2017 to 2025, capped at 9 in 10.

  1. January6 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.1 expected
  2. February3 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 3.4 expected
  3. March1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 1.2 expected
  4. April2 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 2.5 expected
  5. May6 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.4 expected
  6. June8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.8 expected
  7. July8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.3 expected
  8. August2 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 2.8 expected
  9. Septemberunder 1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 1.4 expected
  10. October (now)under 1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 1.2 expected
  11. Novemberunder 1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 0.6 expected
  12. December2 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 2.3 expected

x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.

Open in the trip planner

Trip odds by start week

Pick your start week and trip length. Each cell: of all trips of that length that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, how many in 10 got at least half their days with kite wind.

Trip odds by start week, 10 day trips, 2017 to 2025

Colours as in the kite year: 6 in 10 and more like Prime · 4 to 5 in 10 like Good · 2 to 3 in 10 like Possible · under 2 in 10 like Off · No data hatched (fewer than 30 trips) · Ringed: this week · Raised: your start week

x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.

Source: hourly wind from the ECMWF IFS model via Open-Meteo, 2017 to 2025, kiteCOMPASS method v1. How we count

Trip odds by start week in Mafia Island: W1 5 in 10, W2 8 in 10, W3 8 in 10, W4 2 in 10, W5 6 in 10, W6 3 in 10, W7 2 in 10, W8 3 in 10, W9 3 in 10, W10 2 in 10, W11 under 1 in 10, W12 under 1 in 10, W13 under 1 in 10, W14 under 1 in 10, W15 2 in 10, W16 2 in 10, W17 5 in 10, W18 8 in 10, W19 6 in 10, W20 5 in 10, W21 7 in 10, W22 7 in 10, W23 9 in 10, W24 8 in 10, W25 8 in 10, W26 9 in 10, W27 9 in 10, W28 9 in 10, W29 8 in 10, W30 6 in 10, W31 3 in 10, W32 1 in 10, W33 2 in 10, W34 2 in 10, W35 2 in 10, W36 under 1 in 10, W37 under 1 in 10, W38 under 1 in 10, W39 under 1 in 10, W40 under 1 in 10, W41 under 1 in 10, W42 1 in 10, W43 under 1 in 10, W44 under 1 in 10, W45 under 1 in 10, W46 under 1 in 10, W47 under 1 in 10, W48 under 1 in 10, W49 under 1 in 10, W50 under 1 in 10, W51 3 in 10, W52 3 in 10

under 1 in 10

trips of 10 days starting in week 45 (e.g. 5 to 11 November) got at least 5 kite days in 2017 to 2025 (63 trips).

Zero wind trips: 6 in 10

about 0.7 kite days expected out of 10

Kite days per trip, 63 trips

Bars right of the line are good trips (5 kite days or more).

How the wind behaves

In June, the windiest month

  • Too light 34 %
  • Kiteable 66 %
  • Too strong 0 %

Too light on 34 %, kiteable on 66 %, too strong on 0 % of days.

Best hours: 10:00 to 14:00, when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots.

NESW

Share of kite days by wind direction, 16 sectors

Wind steadily from S (180°).

Kitesurfing at Mafia Island: quick answers

When is the best time to kitesurf at Mafia Island?

The best months are January and May to July: from 2017 to 2025, 52 to 66 % of days in those months were kite days.

Is Mafia Island windy in October?

Rarely. 14 % of days in October were kite days from 2017 to 2025, about 4 days in a typical October. Fewer than 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days, 2017 to 2025.

What is the water temperature at Mafia Island?

The water ranges from 26 °C in July to 30 °C in January. In October it is about 28 °C (wetsuit: boardshorts).

How many kite days does Mafia Island get in a year?

About 120 days a year were kite days from 2017 to 2025, out of 365. A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn.

Live forecast

The numbers above are long term averages. The forecast shows the next days.

Live forecast from Windy

The forecast map for Mafia Island comes from windy.com (Windyty SE, Prague, Czech Republic) and opens right here on this page. Once you load it, your browser contacts Windy, which receives your IP address and may set its own cookies. Nothing is loaded before you click.

Spot facts

Region
Pwani Region
Country
Tanzania
Water body
Sea, from Natural Earth map data
Nearest airport
Julius Nyerere International Airport (DAR), 119 km straight line. Flights are not sold here; this is for planning only.
Time zone
UTC+03:00 in October
Coordinates
-7.8121, 39.7223
Model
ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly
Satellite view of Mafia Island

Conditions, checked against kite guides

Water state, flat areas, waves and whether schools teach here, from kite sources, not from satellite images.

Not yet checked against kite guides. We research spot conditions one by one and show only what a kite source says.

Plan your trip

Booking reminder

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One mail, about 8 weeks before your month starts, with the kite day odds for that month and the link to this page. No newsletter.

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kiteCOMPASS · method k3h-10to19-v1 · 2017 to 2025

Model wind: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025. Water temperature: 2023 to 2025. Kite day: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn. Confidence: high.

Cite this

In October, 14 % of days at Mafia Island met the kiteCOMPASS kite day rule: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn (ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025). https://kitecompass.app/spot/mafia-island

Numbers on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: name kiteCOMPASS and link to this page.