Sea · Tasmania · Australia
Thunder and Lightning Bay
Best for kiting all year, with 64 to 75 % kite days. Water 13 to 20 °C.
A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 knots (gusts up to 45) between 10:00 and 19:00, in daylight. Percentages are the share of such days in each month, counted over 9 years.
- Prime 60 % and more
- Good 40 to 59 %
- Possible 20 to 39 %
- Off under 20 %
- No data hatched
- Ringed: this month
Prime also needs a good month in at least 7 of the 9 years, so one freak year cannot make a month Prime. A month with 60 %+ but fewer good years shows as Good.
Confidence highClose model cell, both models agree on the season, 9 full years.
Month by month
- Kite days
- 72 % Primeabout 22 of 31 days
- Too light, kiteable, too strong
- Too light 27 %
- Kiteable 72 %
- Too strong 1 %
- Good years
- 9 of 9 years reached 50 % kite days
- 10 day trip
- 9 in 10 trips got at least 5 kite days, about 7.1 expected (capped at 9 in 10)
- Best hours
- 10:00 to 18:00when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots
- Daylight
- 13.1 h
- Water
- 13 °C, 6/5 with boots and gloves
- Air
- 14 °Cdaily maximum, 13 °C during kite hours
- Rain
- 10 of 31with 1 mm or more
- In one sentence
In October, Thunder and Lightning Bay averaged 22 kite days out of 31 (72 %). Water 13 °C, 6/5 with boots and gloves. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
| Kite days% of days | 71 | 72 | 65 | 66 | 69 | 64 | 67 | 70 | 75 | 72 | 71 | 69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verdictshare plus good years | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime |
| 10 day tripof 10 trips, 5+ kite days | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 8 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 8 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 |
| Good yearsof 9, reached 50 % | 9 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Best hourshour of day, most often 12 to 35 kn | 10 to 19 | 10 to 19 | 10 to 18 | 10 to 17 | 10 to 16 | 10 to 16 | 10 to 16 | 10 to 16 | 10 to 17 | 10 to 18 | 10 to 19 | 10 to 19 |
| Daylighth | 14.7 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 14.3 | 15.0 |
| Water°C at the surface | 19 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| Air°C, daily maximum | 20 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 |
| Rain days1 mm or more | 6 of 31 | 7 of 28 | 7 of 31 | 9 of 30 | 10 of 31 | 11 of 30 | 12 of 31 | 12 of 31 | 10 of 30 | 10 of 31 | 9 of 30 | 8 of 31 |
| Wetsuitfor that water and the air on kite days, + boots and gloves | 4/3 | 4/3 | 4/3 | 4/3 | 5/4 | 5/4 | 6/5+ | 6/5+ | 6/5+ | 6/5+ | 5/4 | 5/4 |
- In January, Thunder and Lightning Bay averaged 22 kite days out of 31 (71 %). Water 19 °C, 4/3. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in January got at least 5 kite days.
- In February, Thunder and Lightning Bay averaged 20 kite days out of 28 (72 %). Water 20 °C, 4/3. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in February got at least 5 kite days.
- In March, Thunder and Lightning Bay averaged 20 kite days out of 31 (65 %). Water 19 °C, 4/3. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in March got at least 5 kite days.
- In April, Thunder and Lightning Bay averaged 20 kite days out of 30 (66 %). Water 18 °C, 4/3. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in April got at least 5 kite days.
- In May, Thunder and Lightning Bay averaged 21 kite days out of 31 (69 %). Water 16 °C, 5/4. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in May got at least 5 kite days.
- In June, Thunder and Lightning Bay averaged 19 kite days out of 30 (64 %). Water 14 °C, 5/4. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in June got at least 5 kite days.
- In July, Thunder and Lightning Bay averaged 21 kite days out of 31 (67 %). Water 13 °C, 6/5 with boots and gloves. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in July got at least 5 kite days.
- In August, Thunder and Lightning Bay averaged 22 kite days out of 31 (70 %). Water 13 °C, 6/5 with boots and gloves. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in August got at least 5 kite days.
- In September, Thunder and Lightning Bay averaged 23 kite days out of 30 (75 %). Water 13 °C, 6/5 with boots and gloves. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in September got at least 5 kite days.
- In October, Thunder and Lightning Bay averaged 22 kite days out of 31 (72 %). Water 13 °C, 6/5 with boots and gloves. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
- In November, Thunder and Lightning Bay averaged 21 kite days out of 30 (71 %). Water 15 °C, 5/4. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in November got at least 5 kite days.
- In December, Thunder and Lightning Bay averaged 21 kite days out of 31 (69 %). Water 17 °C, 5/4. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in December got at least 5 kite days.
Good year: at least half the days of that month were kite days. x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise. Best hours: the hours from 10:00 on when the wind most often reaches 12 to 35 knots. Rain day: 1 mm or more of rain.
Source: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly model wind, 2017 to 2025; water temperature 2023 to 2025. How we count kite days and trip odds
Trip odds at Thunder and Lightning Bay
How often a trip of your length got at least half its days with kite wind, 2017 to 2025, capped at 9 in 10.
- January9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 7.2 expected
- February9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 7.1 expected
- March9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.6 expected
- April8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.5 expected
- May9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 7.0 expected
- June8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.0 expected
- July9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 7.1 expected
- August9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 7.0 expected
- September9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 7.6 expected
- October (now)9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 7.1 expected
- November9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 7.1 expected
- December9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.9 expected
x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.
Trip odds by start week
Pick your start week and trip length. Each cell: of all trips of that length that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, how many in 10 got at least half their days with kite wind.
Trip odds by start week, 10 day trips, 2017 to 2025
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 9
- 9
- 7
- 7
- 9
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- 9
- 9
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- 9
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- 7
- 7
- 7
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 7
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 9
Colours as in the kite year: 6 in 10 and more like Prime · 4 to 5 in 10 like Good · 2 to 3 in 10 like Possible · under 2 in 10 like Off · No data hatched (fewer than 30 trips) · Ringed: this week · Raised: your start week
x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.
Source: hourly wind from the ECMWF IFS model via Open-Meteo, 2017 to 2025, kiteCOMPASS method v1. How we count
9 in 10
trips of 10 days starting in week 45 (e.g. 5 to 11 November) got at least 5 kite days in 2017 to 2025 (63 trips, capped at 9 in 10).
Zero wind trips: fewer than 1 in 20
about 7.2 kite days expected out of 10
Kite days per trip, 63 trips
Bars right of the line are good trips (5 kite days or more).
How the wind behaves
In September, the windiest month
- Too light 24 %
- Kiteable 75 %
- Too strong 1 %
Too light on 24 %, kiteable on 75 %, too strong on 1 % of days.
Best hours: 10:00 to 17:00, when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots.
Share of kite days by wind direction, 16 sectors
Wind mostly from W (270°), fairly steady direction.
Kitesurfing at Thunder and Lightning Bay: quick answers
When is the best time to kitesurf at Thunder and Lightning Bay?
The best months are the whole year: from 2017 to 2025, 64 to 75 % of days were kite days in every month.
Is Thunder and Lightning Bay windy in October?
Yes, very. 72 % of days in October were kite days from 2017 to 2025, about 22 days in a typical October. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days, 2017 to 2025.
What is the water temperature at Thunder and Lightning Bay?
The water ranges from 13 °C in July to 20 °C in February. In October it is about 13 °C (wetsuit: 6/5 with boots and gloves).
How many kite days does Thunder and Lightning Bay get in a year?
About 253 days a year were kite days from 2017 to 2025, out of 365. A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn.
Live forecast
The numbers above are long term averages. The forecast shows the next days.
Live forecast from Windy
The forecast map for Thunder and Lightning Bay comes from windy.com (Windyty SE, Prague, Czech Republic) and opens right here on this page. Once you load it, your browser contacts Windy, which receives your IP address and may set its own cookies. Nothing is loaded before you click.
Spot facts
- Region
- Tasmania
- Country
- Australia
- Water body
- Sea, from Natural Earth map data
- Nearest airport
- Launceston Airport (LST), 142 km straight line. Flights are not sold here; this is for planning only.
- Time zone
- UTC+11:00 in October
- Coordinates
- -40.4223, 148.0156
- Model
- ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly
Conditions, checked against kite guides
Water state, flat areas, waves and whether schools teach here, from kite sources, not from satellite images.
Not yet checked against kite guides. We research spot conditions one by one and show only what a kite source says.
Nearby kite spots in Tasmania
Kite days in October, % of days
- Babel Point
Australia · 2 points more kite days than Thunder and Lightning Bay in October
74 %Kite days by month at Babel Point: Jan 75 %, Feb 76 %, Mar 69 %, Apr 64 %, May 66 %, Jun 62 %, Jul 71 %, Aug 76 %, Sep 76 %, Oct 74 %, Nov 69 %, Dec 72 % - St Helens Point
Australia · 5 points fewer kite days than Thunder and Lightning Bay in October
67 %Kite days by month at St Helens Point: Jan 68 %, Feb 72 %, Mar 62 %, Apr 50 %, May 44 %, Jun 43 %, Jul 48 %, Aug 61 %, Sep 70 %, Oct 67 %, Nov 67 %, Dec 78 % - Bell Buoy
Australia · 13 points fewer kite days than Thunder and Lightning Bay in October
59 %Kite days by month at Bell Buoy: Jan 51 %, Feb 52 %, Mar 43 %, Apr 43 %, May 48 %, Jun 41 %, Jul 51 %, Aug 56 %, Sep 63 %, Oct 59 %, Nov 53 %, Dec 54 % - Hawley Beach
Australia · 10 points fewer kite days than Thunder and Lightning Bay in October
62 %Kite days by month at Hawley Beach: Jan 55 %, Feb 58 %, Mar 47 %, Apr 47 %, May 51 %, Jun 40 %, Jul 53 %, Aug 56 %, Sep 67 %, Oct 62 %, Nov 57 %, Dec 58 % - Friendly Beaches
Australia · 21 points fewer kite days than Thunder and Lightning Bay in October
51 %Kite days by month at Friendly Beaches: Jan 62 %, Feb 58 %, Mar 53 %, Apr 36 %, May 32 %, Jun 27 %, Jul 27 %, Aug 36 %, Sep 54 %, Oct 51 %, Nov 53 %, Dec 55 % - Port Latta
Australia · 13 points fewer kite days than Thunder and Lightning Bay in October
59 %Kite days by month at Port Latta: Jan 55 %, Feb 60 %, Mar 50 %, Apr 42 %, May 46 %, Jun 37 %, Jul 47 %, Aug 53 %, Sep 60 %, Oct 59 %, Nov 62 %, Dec 62 % - East Inlet
Australia · 5 points more kite days than Thunder and Lightning Bay in October
77 %Kite days by month at East Inlet: Jan 78 %, Feb 80 %, Mar 70 %, Apr 64 %, May 67 %, Jun 55 %, Jul 66 %, Aug 71 %, Sep 77 %, Oct 77 %, Nov 80 %, Dec 80 % - West Beach
Australia · 2 points fewer kite days than Thunder and Lightning Bay in October
70 %Kite days by month at West Beach: Jan 73 %, Feb 76 %, Mar 65 %, Apr 55 %, May 61 %, Jun 50 %, Jul 60 %, Aug 70 %, Sep 73 %, Oct 70 %, Nov 74 %, Dec 76 %
Plan your trip
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kiteCOMPASS · method k3h-10to19-v1 · 2017 to 2025
Model wind: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025. Water temperature: 2023 to 2025. Kite day: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn. Confidence: high.
Cite this
In October, 72 % of days at Thunder and Lightning Bay met the kiteCOMPASS kite day rule: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn (ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025). https://kitecompass.app/spot/thunder-and-lightning-bay
Numbers on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: name kiteCOMPASS and link to this page.