Sea · Northland · New Zealand
Tokerau Beach
Best for kiting all year except February, with 56 to 69 % kite days. Water 15 to 21 °C.
A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 knots (gusts up to 45) between 10:00 and 19:00, in daylight. Percentages are the share of such days in each month, counted over 9 years.
- Prime 60 % and more
- Good 40 to 59 %
- Possible 20 to 39 %
- Off under 20 %
- No data hatched
- Ringed: this month
Prime also needs a good month in at least 7 of the 9 years, so one freak year cannot make a month Prime. A month with 60 %+ but fewer good years shows as Good.
Confidence highClose model cell, both models agree on the season, 9 full years.
Month by month
- Kite days
- 67 % Primeabout 21 of 31 days
- Too light, kiteable, too strong
- Too light 33 %
- Kiteable 67 %
- Too strong 0 %
- 10 day trip
- 9 in 10 trips got at least 5 kite days, about 6.7 expected
- Best hours
- all day, 10:00 to 19:00when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots
- Daylight
- 12.9 h
- Water
- 16 °C, 4/3
- Air
- 17 °Cdaily maximum, 16 °C during kite hours
- Rain
- 9 of 31with 1 mm or more
- In one sentence
In October, Tokerau Beach averaged 21 kite days out of 31 (67 %). Water 16 °C, 4/3. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
| Kite days% of days | 62 | 49 | 58 | 62 | 63 | 59 | 66 | 69 | 68 | 67 | 56 | 65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verdictshare plus good years | Prime | Good | Good | Prime | Prime | Good | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime | Good | Prime |
| 10 day tripof 10 trips, 5+ kite days | 8 in 10 | 6 in 10 | 7 in 10 | 8 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 8 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 7 in 10 | 8 in 10 |
| Good yearsof 0, reached 50 % | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Best hourshour of day, most often 12 to 35 kn | 14 to 19 | 12 to 19 | 13 to 19 | 10 to 17 | 10 to 17 | 10 to 16 | 10 to 17 | 10 to 17 | 12 to 17 | 10 to 19 | 13 to 19 | 13 to 19 |
| Daylighth | 14.2 | 13.4 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 13.9 | 14.4 |
| Water°C at the surface | 21 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 19 |
| Air°C, daily maximum | 21 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 |
| Rain days1 mm or more | 6 of 31 | 7 of 28 | 9 of 31 | 12 of 30 | 11 of 31 | 14 of 30 | 15 of 31 | 14 of 31 | 12 of 30 | 9 of 31 | 10 of 30 | 9 of 31 |
| Wetsuitfor that water and the air on kite days, + boots and gloves | spring | spring | spring | 3/2 | 4/3 | 5/4 | 5/4 | 5/4 | 5/4 | 4/3 | 3/2 | 3/2 |
- In January, Tokerau Beach averaged 19 kite days out of 31 (62 %). Water 21 °C, spring suit. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in January got at least 5 kite days.
- In February, Tokerau Beach averaged 14 kite days out of 28 (49 %). Water 22 °C, spring suit. 6 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in February got at least 5 kite days.
- In March, Tokerau Beach averaged 18 kite days out of 31 (58 %). Water 21 °C, spring suit. 7 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in March got at least 5 kite days.
- In April, Tokerau Beach averaged 19 kite days out of 30 (62 %). Water 20 °C, 3/2. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in April got at least 5 kite days.
- In May, Tokerau Beach averaged 20 kite days out of 31 (63 %). Water 18 °C, 4/3. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in May got at least 5 kite days.
- In June, Tokerau Beach averaged 18 kite days out of 30 (59 %). Water 17 °C, 5/4. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in June got at least 5 kite days.
- In July, Tokerau Beach averaged 20 kite days out of 31 (66 %). Water 16 °C, 5/4. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in July got at least 5 kite days.
- In August, Tokerau Beach averaged 21 kite days out of 31 (69 %). Water 15 °C, 5/4. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in August got at least 5 kite days.
- In September, Tokerau Beach averaged 20 kite days out of 30 (68 %). Water 16 °C, 5/4. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in September got at least 5 kite days.
- In October, Tokerau Beach averaged 21 kite days out of 31 (67 %). Water 16 °C, 4/3. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
- In November, Tokerau Beach averaged 17 kite days out of 30 (56 %). Water 18 °C, 3/2. 7 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in November got at least 5 kite days.
- In December, Tokerau Beach averaged 20 kite days out of 31 (65 %). Water 19 °C, 3/2. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in December got at least 5 kite days.
Good years are not shown here: this spot has no complete per year values, because the two models drift apart over the years. x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise. Best hours: the hours from 10:00 on when the wind most often reaches 12 to 35 knots. Rain day: 1 mm or more of rain.
Source: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly model wind, 2017 to 2025; water temperature 2023 to 2025. How we count kite days and trip odds
Trip odds at Tokerau Beach
How often a trip of your length got at least half its days with kite wind, 2017 to 2025, capped at 9 in 10.
- January8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.1 expected
- February6 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.0 expected
- March7 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.7 expected
- April8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.4 expected
- May9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.4 expected
- June8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.0 expected
- July9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.5 expected
- August9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 7.0 expected
- September9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.8 expected
- October (now)9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.7 expected
- November7 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.6 expected
- December8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.4 expected
x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.
Trip odds by start week
Pick your start week and trip length. Each cell: of all trips of that length that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, how many in 10 got at least half their days with kite wind.
Trip odds by start week, 10 day trips, 2017 to 2025
- 7
- 9
- 9
- 6
- 7
- 6
- 5
- 6
- 8
- 9
- 8
- 5
- 6
- 8
- 9
- 7
- 8
- 6
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 7
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 9
- 8
- 8
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 9
- 8
- 9
- 7
- 7
- 7
- 7
- 9
- 8
- 7
- 8
- 9
Colours as in the kite year: 6 in 10 and more like Prime · 4 to 5 in 10 like Good · 2 to 3 in 10 like Possible · under 2 in 10 like Off · No data hatched (fewer than 30 trips) · Ringed: this week · Raised: your start week
x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.
Source: hourly wind from the ECMWF IFS model via Open-Meteo, 2017 to 2025, kiteCOMPASS method v1. How we count
7 in 10
trips of 10 days starting in week 45 (e.g. 5 to 11 November) got at least 5 kite days in 2017 to 2025 (63 trips).
Zero wind trips: fewer than 1 in 20
about 5.4 kite days expected out of 10
Kite days per trip, 63 trips
Bars right of the line are good trips (5 kite days or more).
How the wind behaves
In August, the windiest month
- Too light 31 %
- Kiteable 69 %
- Too strong 0 %
Too light on 31 %, kiteable on 69 %, too strong on 0 % of days.
Best hours: 10:00 to 17:00, when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots.
Share of kite days by wind direction, 16 sectors
Wind direction varies, most often SW (225°).
Kitesurfing at Tokerau Beach: quick answers
When is the best time to kitesurf at Tokerau Beach?
The best months are all year except February: from 2017 to 2025, 56 to 69 % of days in those months were kite days.
Is Tokerau Beach windy in October?
Yes, very. 67 % of days in October were kite days from 2017 to 2025, about 21 days in a typical October. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days, 2017 to 2025.
What is the water temperature at Tokerau Beach?
The water ranges from 15 °C in August to 22 °C in February. In October it is about 16 °C (wetsuit: 4/3).
How many kite days does Tokerau Beach get in a year?
About 227 days a year were kite days from 2017 to 2025, out of 365. A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn.
Live forecast
The numbers above are long term averages. The forecast shows the next days.
Live forecast from Windy
The forecast map for Tokerau Beach comes from windy.com (Windyty SE, Prague, Czech Republic) and opens right here on this page. Once you load it, your browser contacts Windy, which receives your IP address and may set its own cookies. Nothing is loaded before you click.
Spot facts
- Region
- Northland
- Country
- New Zealand
- Water body
- Sea, from Natural Earth map data
- Nearest airport
- Kaitaia Airport (KAT), 22 km straight line. Flights are not sold here; this is for planning only.
- Time zone
- UTC+13:00 in October
- Coordinates
- -34.8888, 173.3707
- Model
- ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly
Conditions, checked against kite guides
Water state, flat areas, waves and whether schools teach here, from kite sources, not from satellite images.
Not yet checked against kite guides. We research spot conditions one by one and show only what a kite source says.
Nearby kite spots in Northland
Kite days in October, % of days
- Ninety Mile Beach
New Zealand · same kite days as Tokerau Beach in October
67 %Kite days by month at Ninety Mile Beach: Jan 63 %, Feb 50 %, Mar 53 %, Apr 61 %, May 56 %, Jun 57 %, Jul 63 %, Aug 64 %, Sep 68 %, Oct 67 %, Nov 56 %, Dec 59 % - Paihia
New Zealand · 15 points fewer kite days than Tokerau Beach in October
52 %Kite days by month at Paihia: Jan 49 %, Feb 34 %, Mar 39 %, Apr 46 %, May 43 %, Jun 38 %, Jul 47 %, Aug 49 %, Sep 52 %, Oct 52 %, Nov 45 %, Dec 44 % - Ruakaka River Mouth
New Zealand · same kite days as Tokerau Beach in October
67 %Kite days by month at Ruakaka River Mouth: Jan 59 %, Feb 44 %, Mar 51 %, Apr 62 %, May 58 %, Jun 57 %, Jul 61 %, Aug 63 %, Sep 64 %, Oct 67 %, Nov 54 %, Dec 56 %
Plan your trip
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kiteCOMPASS · method k3h-10to19-v1 · 2017 to 2025
Model wind: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025. Water temperature: 2023 to 2025. Kite day: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn. Confidence: high.
Cite this
In October, 67 % of days at Tokerau Beach met the kiteCOMPASS kite day rule: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn (ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025). https://kitecompass.app/spot/tokerau-beach
Numbers on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: name kiteCOMPASS and link to this page.