Sea · KwaZulu-Natal · South Africa
St Lucia Estuary
Best for kiting from August to January, with 57 to 67 % kite days. Water 22 to 27 °C.
A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 knots (gusts up to 45) between 10:00 and 19:00, in daylight. Percentages are the share of such days in each month, counted over 9 years.
- Prime 60 % and more
- Good 40 to 59 %
- Possible 20 to 39 %
- Off under 20 %
- No data hatched
- Ringed: this month
Prime also needs a good month in at least 7 of the 9 years, so one freak year cannot make a month Prime. A month with 60 %+ but fewer good years shows as Good.
Confidence highClose model cell, both models agree on the season, 9 full years.
Month by month
- Kite days
- 66 % Primeabout 20 of 31 days
- Too light, kiteable, too strong
- Too light 34 %
- Kiteable 66 %
- Too strong 0 %
- 10 day trip
- 9 in 10 trips got at least 5 kite days, about 6.5 expected
- Best hours
- 11:00 to 17:00when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots
- Daylight
- 12.8 h
- Water
- 23 °C, spring suit
- Air
- 24 °Cdaily maximum, 23 °C during kite hours
- Rain
- 13 of 31with 1 mm or more
- In one sentence
In October, St Lucia Estuary averaged 20 kite days out of 31 (66 %). Water 23 °C, spring suit. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
| Kite days% of days | 57 | 45 | 45 | 42 | 31 | 27 | 43 | 57 | 62 | 66 | 65 | 67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verdictshare plus good years | Good | Good | Good | Good | Possible | Possible | Good | Good | Prime | Prime | Prime | Prime |
| 10 day tripof 10 trips, 5+ kite days | 7 in 10 | 5 in 10 | 4 in 10 | 4 in 10 | 1 in 10 | 1 in 10 | 4 in 10 | 8 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 | 9 in 10 |
| Good yearsof 0, reached 50 % | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Best hourshour of day, most often 12 to 35 kn | 11 to 17 | 12 to 17 | 12 to 17 | 12 to 17 | 13 to 16 | 12 to 16 | 12 to 16 | 12 to 16 | 12 to 17 | 11 to 17 | 11 to 17 | 11 to 17 |
| Daylighth | 13.7 | 13.1 | 12.3 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 13.9 |
| Water°C at the surface | 27 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 26 |
| Air°C, daily maximum | 27 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
| Rain days1 mm or more | 14 of 31 | 16 of 28 | 12 of 31 | 14 of 30 | 9 of 31 | 6 of 30 | 6 of 31 | 8 of 31 | 9 of 30 | 13 of 31 | 11 of 30 | 14 of 31 |
| Wetsuitfor that water and the air on kite days, + boots and gloves | shorts | shorts | shorts | shorty | shorty | spring | spring | spring | spring | spring | shorty | shorty |
- In January, St Lucia Estuary averaged 18 kite days out of 31 (57 %). Water 27 °C, boardshorts. 7 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in January got at least 5 kite days.
- In February, St Lucia Estuary averaged 12 kite days out of 28 (45 %). Water 27 °C, boardshorts. 5 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in February got at least 5 kite days.
- In March, St Lucia Estuary averaged 14 kite days out of 31 (45 %). Water 27 °C, boardshorts. 4 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in March got at least 5 kite days.
- In April, St Lucia Estuary averaged 13 kite days out of 30 (42 %). Water 26 °C, shorty. 4 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in April got at least 5 kite days.
- In May, St Lucia Estuary averaged 9 kite days out of 31 (31 %). Water 25 °C, shorty. 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in May got at least 5 kite days.
- In June, St Lucia Estuary averaged 8 kite days out of 30 (27 %). Water 23 °C, spring suit. 1 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in June got at least 5 kite days.
- In July, St Lucia Estuary averaged 13 kite days out of 31 (43 %). Water 23 °C, spring suit. 4 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in July got at least 5 kite days.
- In August, St Lucia Estuary averaged 18 kite days out of 31 (57 %). Water 22 °C, spring suit. 8 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in August got at least 5 kite days.
- In September, St Lucia Estuary averaged 19 kite days out of 30 (62 %). Water 23 °C, spring suit. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in September got at least 5 kite days.
- In October, St Lucia Estuary averaged 20 kite days out of 31 (66 %). Water 23 °C, spring suit. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days.
- In November, St Lucia Estuary averaged 19 kite days out of 30 (65 %). Water 24 °C, shorty. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in November got at least 5 kite days.
- In December, St Lucia Estuary averaged 21 kite days out of 31 (67 %). Water 26 °C, shorty. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in December got at least 5 kite days.
Good years are not shown here: this spot has no complete per year values, because the two models drift apart over the years. x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise. Best hours: the hours from 10:00 on when the wind most often reaches 12 to 35 knots. Rain day: 1 mm or more of rain.
Source: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly model wind, 2017 to 2025; water temperature 2023 to 2025. How we count kite days and trip odds
Trip odds at St Lucia Estuary
How often a trip of your length got at least half its days with kite wind, 2017 to 2025, capped at 9 in 10.
- January7 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.6 expected
- February5 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 4.3 expected
- March4 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 4.5 expected
- April4 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 4.0 expected
- May1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 2.9 expected
- June1 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 2.8 expected
- July4 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 4.5 expected
- August8 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 5.9 expected
- September9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.2 expected
- October (now)9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.5 expected
- November9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.5 expected
- December9 in 10 trips of 10 days got at least 5 kite days, about 6.5 expected
x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that month between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.
Trip odds by start week
Pick your start week and trip length. Each cell: of all trips of that length that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, how many in 10 got at least half their days with kite wind.
Trip odds by start week, 10 day trips, 2017 to 2025
- 8
- 7
- 8
- 7
- 7
- 3
- 5
- 4
- 4
- 5
- 3
- 5
- 5
- 4
- 4
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 2
- 1
- 1
- 0
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 2
- 4
- 3
- 5
- 5
- 7
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 8
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 8
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 9
- 8
Colours as in the kite year: 6 in 10 and more like Prime · 4 to 5 in 10 like Good · 2 to 3 in 10 like Possible · under 2 in 10 like Off · No data hatched (fewer than 30 trips) · Ringed: this week · Raised: your start week
x in 10 reads: of all 10 day trips that started in that week between 2017 and 2025, x in 10 got at least 5 kite days. We cap the figure at 9 in 10 because wind is never a promise.
Source: hourly wind from the ECMWF IFS model via Open-Meteo, 2017 to 2025, kiteCOMPASS method v1. How we count
9 in 10
trips of 10 days starting in week 45 (e.g. 5 to 11 November) got at least 5 kite days in 2017 to 2025 (63 trips).
Zero wind trips: fewer than 1 in 20
about 6.7 kite days expected out of 10
Kite days per trip, 63 trips
Bars right of the line are good trips (5 kite days or more).
How the wind behaves
In December, the windiest month
- Too light 33 %
- Kiteable 67 %
- Too strong 0 %
Too light on 33 %, kiteable on 67 %, too strong on 0 % of days.
Best hours: 11:00 to 17:00, when the wind is most often 12 to 35 knots.
Share of kite days by wind direction, 16 sectors
Wind direction varies, most often NE (45°).
Kitesurfing at St Lucia Estuary: quick answers
When is the best time to kitesurf at St Lucia Estuary?
The best months are August to January: from 2017 to 2025, 57 to 67 % of days in those months were kite days.
Is St Lucia Estuary windy in October?
Yes, very. 66 % of days in October were kite days from 2017 to 2025, about 20 days in a typical October. 9 in 10 trips of 10 days starting in October got at least 5 kite days, 2017 to 2025.
What is the water temperature at St Lucia Estuary?
The water ranges from 22 °C in August to 27 °C in January. In October it is about 23 °C (wetsuit: spring suit).
How many kite days does St Lucia Estuary get in a year?
About 184 days a year were kite days from 2017 to 2025, out of 365. A kite day has at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn.
Live forecast
The numbers above are long term averages. The forecast shows the next days.
Live forecast from Windy
The forecast map for St Lucia Estuary comes from windy.com (Windyty SE, Prague, Czech Republic) and opens right here on this page. Once you load it, your browser contacts Windy, which receives your IP address and may set its own cookies. Nothing is loaded before you click.
Spot facts
- Region
- KwaZulu-Natal
- Country
- South Africa
- Water body
- Sea, from Natural Earth map data
- Nearest airport
- Richards Bay Airport (RCB), 52 km straight line. Flights are not sold here; this is for planning only.
- Time zone
- UTC+02:00 in October
- Coordinates
- -28.3832, 32.4263
- Model
- ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly
Conditions, checked against kite guides
Water state, flat areas, waves and whether schools teach here, from kite sources, not from satellite images.
Not yet checked against kite guides. We research spot conditions one by one and show only what a kite source says.
Nearby kite spots in KwaZulu-Natal
Kite days in October, % of days
- Richards Bay
South Africa · same kite days as St Lucia Estuary in October
66 %Kite days by month at Richards Bay: Jan 66 %, Feb 48 %, Mar 55 %, Apr 40 %, May 28 %, Jun 24 %, Jul 34 %, Aug 49 %, Sep 57 %, Oct 66 %, Nov 66 %, Dec 63 % - Sodwana Bay
South Africa · 10 points more kite days than St Lucia Estuary in October
76 %Kite days by month at Sodwana Bay: Jan 67 %, Feb 60 %, Mar 51 %, Apr 53 %, May 39 %, Jun 35 %, Jul 50 %, Aug 69 %, Sep 71 %, Oct 76 %, Nov 76 %, Dec 80 % - Tinley Manor Beach Point
South Africa · 8 points more kite days than St Lucia Estuary in October
74 %Kite days by month at Tinley Manor Beach Point: Jan 72 %, Feb 65 %, Mar 66 %, Apr 56 %, May 53 %, Jun 43 %, Jul 53 %, Aug 67 %, Sep 67 %, Oct 74 %, Nov 69 %, Dec 68 % - Tinley Manor Beach
South Africa · 8 points more kite days than St Lucia Estuary in October
74 %Kite days by month at Tinley Manor Beach: Jan 73 %, Feb 68 %, Mar 67 %, Apr 56 %, May 54 %, Jun 44 %, Jul 52 %, Aug 68 %, Sep 68 %, Oct 74 %, Nov 69 %, Dec 67 % - La Mercy Lagoon
South Africa · 2 points fewer kite days than St Lucia Estuary in October
64 %Kite days by month at La Mercy Lagoon: Jan 65 %, Feb 57 %, Mar 56 %, Apr 49 %, May 41 %, Jun 33 %, Jul 40 %, Aug 56 %, Sep 59 %, Oct 64 %, Nov 60 %, Dec 58 % - Bayhead
South Africa · 3 points fewer kite days than St Lucia Estuary in October
63 %Kite days by month at Bayhead: Jan 63 %, Feb 58 %, Mar 58 %, Apr 52 %, May 44 %, Jun 35 %, Jul 43 %, Aug 56 %, Sep 60 %, Oct 63 %, Nov 60 %, Dec 57 % - Durban Bluff
South Africa · 3 points more kite days than St Lucia Estuary in October
69 %Kite days by month at Durban Bluff: Jan 68 %, Feb 66 %, Mar 63 %, Apr 60 %, May 51 %, Jun 43 %, Jul 50 %, Aug 61 %, Sep 70 %, Oct 69 %, Nov 62 %, Dec 62 % - Warner Beach
South Africa · 5 points more kite days than St Lucia Estuary in October
71 %Kite days by month at Warner Beach: Jan 70 %, Feb 66 %, Mar 65 %, Apr 62 %, May 53 %, Jun 47 %, Jul 51 %, Aug 65 %, Sep 70 %, Oct 71 %, Nov 65 %, Dec 63 %
Plan your trip
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kiteCOMPASS · method k3h-10to19-v1 · 2017 to 2025
Model wind: ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025. Water temperature: 2023 to 2025. Kite day: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn. Confidence: high.
Cite this
In October, 66 % of days at St Lucia Estuary met the kiteCOMPASS kite day rule: at least 3 hours of 12 to 35 kn model wind between 10:00 and 19:00 in daylight, with gusts up to 45 kn (ECMWF IFS 9 km via Open-Meteo, hourly, 2017 to 2025). https://kitecompass.app/spot/st-lucia-estuary
Numbers on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0: name kiteCOMPASS and link to this page.